Before Disney/Marvel’s Wakanda Forever comes in and does $175M-$200M next weekend, providing a complete rebirth to the domestic box office, don’t knock New Line’s Black Adam this weekend which had a fantastic hold of -33% for a third weekend of $18.5M. Total running domestic cume stands at $137.4M.
Some rivals have snarked to me about the big cost for this movie at $200M before P&A, that Black Adam won’t profit like Johnson’s Fast & Furious spinoff Hobbs & Shaw which had the benefit of $200M out of China (again, Uni only got a 25% rental there), and a better exchange rate, that film doing $759M WW and yielding an $84M net profit after all ancillaries. Black Adam will be lucky to top out at $400M WW. Again, Warners couldn’t have seen that strong dollar coming abroad. Two quick thoughts, in some ways we’re still in a marketplace of rebuild, and you could argue this was a pricey pic to start a deep universe DC franchise. Then again, it’s a Rock movie with the same production price tag as Hobbs & Shaw.
However, stateside, we can’t throw shade on Black Adam. This movie is the biggest thing in the market right now, spurring concession sales for exhibition over the last three weekends. It came out of the gate as Johnson’s top solo opening with $67M. Black Adam‘s third weekend boasts a better hold and box office in its third weekend than Hobbs & Shaw (-44%, $14.1M). The pic’s running total is pacing 3% ahead of Hobbs & Shaw at the same point in time. Black Adam even had a better third weekend than San Andreas ($10.8M, -58%) and is also ahead of that film’s running U.S/Canada total $119.1M.
Crunchyroll’s One Piece Film Red is missing the $10M outlook it had yesterday AM with a $9.47M opening. The Toei Animation co-production looks to top out at $20M at the end of its short theatrical run, which is typically where these anime movies from Crunchyroll begin. The film is available as both subtitled or dubbed in English. Fans showed up and fans alone, giving the movie an A CinemaScore. Audience exits on Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak saw 88% positive-leaning, 76% guys, 75% between 18-34. Diversity demos were 23% Caucasian, a great 37% Latino and Hispanic, 18% Black and 22% Asian/other. Those who bought tickets wanted to see it in Imax or on PLF, with those formats driving close to 40% of weekend ticket sales.
RelishMix noticed positive word of mouth for this movie on social, however, it’s clear it’s not as popular as Crunchroll/Funimation’s previous fare, i.e. the Dragonball franchise. “Crunchyroll fans navigate the robust anime social media ecosystem that connects 22.5M fans across Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, TikTok — and YouTube which is where the majority of engagement takes place with 714.2M views on five studio owned videos at an reposting viral rate of 65:1. Animated film clips, promos, some with subtitles, are woven in with music videos featuring artist Ado, who also is cross-promoting the film on her YouTube channel with 4.3M subs,” reports the social media analytics company.
And now a word about the specialty sector. Again, as box office looks to regain its pre-pandemic footing, granted, we’ve been soft and forgiving in our assessment, especially last weekend when the wide expansions of Till, Tar ($1M, $964 theater average), Triangle of Sadness ($883K) and Call Jane (a 1,000-plus opener with a $248 theater average; the pic fell 75% in weekend 2 with $60K) weren’t that super. It’s clear there continues to be a hobbled older adult audience out there.
But in some ways, it isn’t. Similar to big studio wide releases, the success of these movies goes back to product.
Searchlight’s Banshees of Inisherin in its 895 expansion with a $2M take, and $2,2K theater average didn’t wow. While business was best in the Northeast, when you look at the top ten runs, only three theaters came from there. Pic’s best markets were NYC, Chicago, DC, Boston, Philly, Austin, Minnesota, Denver and Vancouver, but even in those places, the ticket sales dropped off when you look outside the core areas. About 40% of the pic’s runs on Friday night were under $500. The pic skewed heavily Caucasian at 83%. PostTrak exits were 81% positive, with 57% guys, and 51% over 35.
Also, the wide break on Focus Features Armageddon Time at 1,006 didn’t impress with an $805 per theater, for an $810K weekend and $902K ten-day total. Audiences disagreed heavily with Rotten Tomatoes critics, 66% positive to 75%. Like Banshees, this pic skewed very Caucasian at 77%, men 53% and 57% over 35.
While Tar had a -36% hold at 1,090 cinemas in weekend 3, with $670K and current stateside total of $3.7M, the 2 hour 38 minute running time-film about a Type A personality, pretentious composer who gets in her way is expected to top out at only $5.5M.
Adding further agita for these movies is that Wakanda Forever is going to vacuum up all the theaters that aren’t doing business for this fare.
What’s going on?! Again, it’s product, product, and a bulk of these indie films are dour or tiresome for audiences: an egotistical composer, a drama centering around two older actors, and a director’s autobiopic to name a few. Nothing screams stampede. But look what is doing great with adults: an upbeat frothy George Clooney & Julia Roberts romantic comedy, Ticket to Paradise, which has an amazing -14% third weekend hold for $8.5M and a running cume of $46.7M and TriStar’s anomaly African warrior epic The Woman King ($65.9M running total through weekend 8). So we can’t say that adults aren’t entirely going to the box office. It’s the movies, stupid.
Also, as A24’s Everything Everywhere All at Once proved with a $70M stateside bank, if you want to create a renaissance for specialty cinema, make more edgy films for the the 18-34 crowd, as well as those that will pull in a diverse crowd. That’s who’ll save arthouses, at least in the near future.
Overall tickets sales for all movies are estimated to be around $62M, still God awful low.
1.) Black Adam (NL) 3,985 (-417) theaters, Fri $4.7M, Sat $8.36M, Sun $5.4M 3-day $18.5M (-33%)/Total $137.3M/Wk 3
2.) One Piece Film Red (Crunchy) 2,367 theaters, Fri $4.82M, Sat $2.688M, Sun $1.96M, 3-day $9.47M/Wk 1
3.) Ticket to Paradise (Uni) 4,066 (+374) theaters, Fri $2.6M, Sat $3.6M, Sun $2.28M 3-day $8.5M (-14%)/Total $46.7M/Wk 3
4.) Smile (Par) 3,046 (-175) theaters, Fri $1.15M , Sat $1.78M Sun $1.07M 3-day $4M (-26%),total $99.1M/Wk 6
5.) Prey for the Devil (LG) 2,980 theaters, Fri $1.1M, Sat $1.69M Sun $1.05M 3-day $3.875M (-46%) Total $13.6M/ Wk 2
6.) Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (Sony) 3,005 (-130) theaters, Fri $745k, Sat $1.6M Sun $1M 3-day $3.36M (+23%)/Total: $36.5M/Wk 5
7.) Banshees of Inisherin (Sea) 895 (+837) Fri 734K, Sat $767K Sun $500K, 3-day $2M (+274%), Total $3M/Wk 3
8.) Till (UAR) 2,136 (+78) theaters, Fri $524K, Sat $795K, Sun $556K, 3-day $1.875M (-32%)/Total $6.5M/Wk 4
9.) Halloween Ends (Uni) 2,929 (-490) theaters, Fri $420K, Sat $630K, Sun $350K 3-day $1.44M (-66%)/Total: $63.4M/ Wk 4
10.) Terrifier 2 (Iconic) 1,245 (-305) theaters, Fri $351,5K, Sat $493,5K, Sun $375K 3-day $1.22M (-36%), Total $9.8M/Wk 5