If you weren’t at Barbie or Oppenheimer, or both movies this weekend, consider yourself square.
Updated figures this AM show Warner Bros.’ new franchise based on the Mattel doll at $48.1M (-32% from Friday/previews), for what is shaping up to still be a $155M start, the biggest opening of 2023. Others believe in their bones this Greta Gerwing-directed, Margot Robbie-Ryan Gosling combo is destined for $160M. Warners isn’t a studio to get over their skis in estimates.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimer might be about a bomb, but it’s certainly not a bomb in the box office sense of the word, with the Universal Christopher Nolan-directed movie eyeing $25.8M on Saturday, -22% from Friday night/previews of $33M, for what’s shaping up to be an awesome $80.5M opening, per Universal this morning.
As we spotted on Thursday night, Oppenheimer looked like it was going to emulate the box office trajectory of the R-rated X-Men title, Logan. That pic’s first day/previews was also $33M. However, it had a $31.3M Saturday for what turned out to be an $88.4M opening. Point is, audiences are approaching this Nolan movie like a comic-book movie, not the adult drama that it is. In fact, both movies’ fervent fans are owning it in their cinema attire, dressing up like the characters in Barbie and Oppenheimer (scroll down).
Behold the foot traffic: box office analytics corp EntTelligence says that “Barbenheimer is going to pull in approximately 18.5M patrons this weekend. Other than Spider-Man: No Way Home in 2021 (20M patrons), this is the most foot traffic EntTelligence has monitored, for a three-day new opening film or combination of films, since our formation during the dark period of the pandemic.”
–Barbie clocked 12.8M admissions, which is the highest non-MCU/fresh IP film to open since EntTellgience began monitoring. Only Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Spider-Man: No Way Home are ahead of it.
Oppenheimer had 5.8M admissions, which EntTelligence says is a record-breaker in the firm’s post pandemic era. It is the most attendees for an R-rated opening, surpassing John Wick: Chapter 4‘s 5.2M.
Despite the awesome weekend for the industry, one rival distributor griped, “It’s hard to keep up with a killer combo like this which plays both cities and small towns.”
Exclaimed Jeff Goldstein, Warner Bros. Domestic Distribution President, “We had everybody from Halifax, VA to Honolulu.”
Beamed Universal’s Boss of Domestic Distribution Jim Orr this AM: “Nolan’s films are riveting, exhilarating, and true cinematic experiences. Oppenheimer is a perfect example of that, as it has captivated audiences around the world this weekend with its extraordinary craftmanship and emotional performances from an incredible cast led by Cillian Murphy.”
Barbie cost a net of $128M before P&A, while Oppenheimer cost around $100M.
EntTelligence also reports that four out of five moviegoers went to see Barbie or Oppenheimer this weekend, with the former generating 52% of the overall admission traffic, Oppenheimer repping 27%, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning drawing 6.5%, and Sound of Freedom pulling in 5.6%. Average ticket price for Barbie was $12.65, while Oppenheimer went for $13.65.
Business was hearty throughout the day for both pics, with a breakdown of admissions as follows:
BARBIE OPPENHEIMER
Pre 1PM 19% 21%
1PM to 5PM 31% 30%
5PM to 8PM -27% 28%
Post 8PM -23% 21%
For those who didn’t do their box office homework, we’ve had a late July Christopher Nolan pic vs. female demo tentpole face-off before, back in 2008. In fact, it was a Warner Bros-Universal fight as well. However, Nolan was in the No. 1 spot. That battle was Dark Knight ($158.4M opening) versus Mamma Mia! ($27.7M).
Arguments could be made that Barbie raised Oppenheimer‘s boat. However, that loss of Imax screens has Paramount’s Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning taking a second weekend hit of -64% with $19.5M, and running total of $118.7M. Sequel’s second Saturday business of $7.8M was up over Friday’s $5.5M by +40%. There’s been some scuttlebucket out there as to why Mission didn’t go in the first weekend of July. This pic could not be moved from its current release date, as prints were delivered quite wet to exhibitors.
Deadline is calling Mission in 3rd place at the box office. Angel Studios is trying to claim third with Sound of Freedom at $20.1M and reporting their weekend estimates hours after the industry publishes their results in the early AM. Realize Comscore is the police officer (among distributors) when it comes to reporting, and counts close to 100% of all theater grosses (at the end of the day, Comscore reports what distributors provide them after they tabulate the unmonitored locations). The industry average estimate for Sound of Freedom is $19M. There is no way a handful of mom and pop theaters which went unmonitored by Comscore collected $1M. Just no way. It’s not to say that Angel Studios doesn’t have a hit on their hands with a $100M-plus grossing title. But there’s some concern by rivals that there’s some puffing of numbers by this frosh distributor, and it’s not a case of Goliath versus David. Running total through weekend 3 is $123.6M, per industry estimates. Deadline is still looking into this to see where the extra $1M is coming from. We’ve asked Angel Studios to show us where the extra $1M is coming from.
More details on Oppenheimer: Uni had the lions share of premium screens this weekend, with showtimes on more than 80% of all PLFs. All in, PLF and Imax drove 47% of the gross.
Imax repped 26% of the gross, with 2% from 25 Imax 70MM prints. $70K Imax theater average. Another 85 standard 70mm film screens repped 4% of Oppenheimer ticket sales so far. Exhibitor-branded PLF screens, such as AMC Dolby Cinema, Cinemark XD, and Regal RPX, produced another stellar 17% of domestic gross thus far this weekend.
Said RelishMix about the online chatter for Barbie: “Excitement is palpable in chatter surrounding Barbie as Margot Robbie’s star power as a massive draw, with fans proclaiming, Anything with Margot Robbie.’ Ryan Gosling’s Ken has already claimed a fan-fave pedestal, and he’s not even out of the box yet — for the bold campiness of the film which is being embraced wholeheartedly, just as the iconic nostalgia evoked by Barbie and the surprisingly multifaceted narrative are being thoroughly appreciated as the film’s eclectic marketing strategy, which has connected fans.”
In regards to Oppenheimer, the social media analytics firm says, “The drumbeat on Oppenheimer is thunderous with solid positive anticipation as fans are all in for the Nolan-Murphy combo, ‘Looks extraordinary, like a life-changing experience — something I don’t usually associate with films.’ There’s no denying expectations for Nolan’s newest venture is being proclaimed as his ‘magnum opus.’ The presence of Peaky Blinders’ Cillian Murphy, declared a ‘genius,’ only heightens the fervor. The chatter isn’t simply about watching a movie, it’s about witnessing what could be a “seminal moment in cinematic history.” Mentions are comping Oppenheimer in the same breath as classics like Interstellar, Taxi Driver and The Godfather. Even before its arrival, Oppenheimer had the online world held in its thrall, demonstrating once again the influence and reach of the Nolan brand.”
A $300M overall box office domestic weekend for all movies, thanks to Oppenheimer and Barbie, continues to be in store. The question is whether it becomes the third-highest by Monday.
“This was a phenomenal experience for people who love movies on the big screen,” beamed Michael O’Leary, the National Association of Theatre Owners new President & CEO. “It was a truly historic weekend and continues the positive box office momentum of 2023. More importantly, it proves once again that America loves going to the movies to see great films. People recognized that something special was happening and they wanted to be a part of it. Our partners in the creative community and at the studios gave audiences two uniquely different, smart and original stories that were meant for the big screen and movie lovers responded by gathering friends and family and heading to their local movie houses across the nation. The men and women who operate our theatres also responded by creating promotions and unique events to further enhance the moviegoing experience for enthusiastic movie lovers. This weekend is a shining example of how there is simply no substitute for seeing a motion picture in the cinema.”
The chart:
1.) Barbie (WB) 4,243 theaters, Fri $70.8M, Sat $48.1M Sun $36.1M 3-day $155M/Wk 1
2.) Oppenheimer (Uni) 3,610 theaters Fri $33M, Sat $26.1M Sun $21.3M 3-day $80.5M/Wk 1
3.) Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One (Par) 4,321 (-6) theaters, Fri $5.56M Sat $7.8M Sun $6.1M 3-day $19.5M (-64%), Total $118.7M/Wk 2
4.) Sound of Freedom (Angel)
Angel Studios reported 3,285 (+20) theaters, Fri $5.7M Sat $7.4M Sun $7M 3-day $20.1M, Total $124.7M/Wk 3
Industry reported: 3,285 (+20) theaters, Fri $5.4M, Sat $6.9M Sun $6.7M 3-day $19M, Total $123.6M/Wk 3
5.)Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (Dis) 2,885 (-980) theaters, Fri $1.9M Sat $2.6M Sun $2.1M 3-day $6.7M (-45%)/Total $159M/Wk 4
6.) Insidous: The Red Door (Sony/Blum) 2,554 (-634) theaters Fri $2.09M Sat $2.5M Sun $1.87M 3-day $6.5M (-50%)/Total $71M/Wk 3
7.) Elemental (Dis) 2,720 (-515) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-30%) Sat $2.2M Sun $1.8M 3-day $5.8M (-36%), Total $137.2M/Wk 6
8.) Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony) 1,669 (-908) theaters, Fri $857K Sat $1.07M Sun $883K 3-day $2.8M (-53%) Total $375.2M /Wk 8
9.) Transformers: Rise of the Beasts (Par) 834 (-1,207) theaters, Fri $311K Sat $462K Sun 347K 3-day $1.12M (-67%) Total $155.6M/Wk 7
10.) No Hard Feelings (Sony) 1,017 (-1036) theaters, Fri $360K Sat $415K Sun $300K 3-day $1.075M (-67%), Total $49.2M /Wk 5