‘The Exorcist: Believer’ Opens to Lukewarm Debut at the BO!!

Not even the devil himself could help Universal and Blumhouse this weekend with the opening of The Exorcist: Believer. That’s after the studio bought the franchise rights for a trilogy from Morgan Creek back in July 2021 for $400M. Even though this is the best opening for an Exorcist movie with $27.2M stateside, $45.1M global, heads are low over at Universal City. However, their slide rule for determining breakeven and profitability on this particular film is being measured against Believer‘s $30M production cost. Wah? Read on.

In regards to whether the Exorcist franchise buy actually worked, that will be determined down the road after another two films are accounted for by Universal. Yeah, but where do you go from here? Correct — the next Exorcist will need to be rebooted greatly after David Gordon Green’s vision here did not resonate in a Halloween type of way, that first 2018 movie opening to a franchise best of $76.2M domestic, and the filmmaker’s three Michael Meyers films grossing a near half-billion worldwide.

The last two installments, Halloween Kills and Halloween Ends, saw their ticket sales siphoned due to a theatrical-day-and-date on Uni streaming service Peacock. However, for Universal, Halloween was a big subscription driver. It’s why they’re going theatrical day-and-date on Blumhouse’s feature take of popular videogame, Five Nights at Freddys, on Oct. 27. The $30M spent on this Exorcist doesn’t include backends.

Seeing horror was a big driver to Peacock, Universal — in the heat of a passioned sale — took Exorcist off the table in July 2021 (when studios were still disillusioned about theatrical day-and-date in the throes of the pandemic), much in the same way Netflix or Amazon would take movies off the table, Netflix shelling out $465M for two Knives Out sequels. It’s for these reasons why Universal and Peacock bit at CAA’s auction for the IP. At the time that Uni/Peacock and Blumhouse made the deal with Morgan Creek, it was before they pivoted Halloween Kills, the second Green-directed movie, to a theatrical-day-and-date on Peacock (for the record, that movie saw a bigger opening than Exorcist: Believer here, with a $49.4M domestic start).

As we previously mentioned, this $400M purchase by Uni for Exorcist wasn’t a scenario where three movies would be produced at $133M apiece (some rival studio executives are under the impression that that’s what the deal called for). The Exorcist deal was a broader franchise driver for Uni, which included production budgets, a buyout of talent and rights backends, producer fees, rights to leverage IP across the portfolio (theme parks/Halloween Horror Nights, experiences, branding) and also to drive viewership on Peacock. Exorcist: Believer has a 45-day theatrical window before landing on Peacock. It’s possible, though there are no definite plans on the next two Exorcist movies, that they could go theatrical day and date on Peacock.

Now, a lot has obviously changed in the marketplace since this Exorcist deal was made, and the economics around these types of buyouts are significantly more strained in 2023 than they were in 2021. In the heat of the deal, what execs at Uni didn’t realize was that Exorcist isn’t Halloween. Sequels to the late 1973 William Friedkin directed-scariest movie ever in cinema never lived up to the original critically or commercially — this one at 23% with reviewers on Rotten Tomatoes. The Exorcist IP has been ripped off and copied so much that the brand is rather diluted, i.e. Screen Gems’ The Exorcism of Emily Rose and Lionsgate‘s The Last Exorcism. The elements of Exorcist do not have the storied legacy as, say, Jamie Lee Curtis’ Laurie Strode and Michael Meyers.

What’s obvious is that unlike Green’s Halloween, this Exorcist really isn’t a spiritual sequel or reboot in the sense of that movie, which, of course, fans could easily smell this weekend, giving Believer a “C” CinemaScore the same as 1990’s The Exorcist III and 2004’s The Exorcist: The Beginning.

Furthermore, Ellen Burstyn’s Chris MacNeil isn’t exactly Curtis’ Strode in regards to being the last girl standing. There was a lot of back and forth in development in regards to what this Exorcist should be before settling on a plot of a single father (Oscar nominee Leslie Odom, Jr) whose only daughter gets possessed after a disappearance in the woods. Reportedly, Odom Jr. walked off the set of Exorcist: The Believer and production stopped. However, that’s less this movie’s problem than its subpar set-up.

Universal originally had the horror theatrical release date of Friday the 13th this month before AMC’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour landed on that date. However, going earlier really wasn’t the problem here for Exorcist: Believer. It was always in the execution.

Social media analytics firm RelishMix noticed online chatter that had many piling on the rhetorical issue of remakes, as they questioned, “Why re-paint the Mona Lisa of Horror?”

While horror has been bankable during the pandemic, and this opening for Exorcist: Believer (despite coming in under tracking’s $30M projection) in the wheelhouse of other genre openings, Evil Dead ($24.5M), Smile ($22.6M), The Black Phone ($23.6M) and Nun II‘s $32.6M, many still say that this actors’ strike, and performers’ unable to promote their wares is truly weighing down on ticket sales. A studio just can’t scream these movies from the hilltops in their promotions on social media, at premieres and festivals. Consider the fact that the phenomenal results for 2018’s Halloween began when Blumhouse blasted off the movie at TIFF’s Midnight Madness.

More to the point that the lack of product and actors strike’ are having a Covid-impact at the domestic box office: This weekend’s overall ticket sales were $76.4M. Though +30% from a year ago, when Smile was in its second weekend, and product delayed led to a logjam in the post production pipeline, it’s 41% off from 2021, when theaters reopened and big tent poles came back (that’s when Venom: Let There Be Carnage led the charts). It’s down 49% from the same first weekend October period in 2019 when The Joker drove all titles to a $150.56M result.

RelishMix further points out that while Exorcist: Believer‘s social media universe at 214.3M is 32% ahead of horror franchise comps, “The overall intensity continues to be softened by lack of late night talk, no cast at a premiere and no cast on social, but materials do include good BTS videos with the cast in place of them directly promoting the opening.” The first Exorcist: Believer trailer launched to exhibitors back at CinemaCon in April.

Whether Exorcist: Believer profits remains a question. Stateside outlook is $75M per some analysts.

Other stats from the weekend, Exorcist: Believer repped 34% of all foot traffic. Including Nun II, Saw X, Dumb Money, Equalizer 3 and Expendables 4, 55% of all moviegoers saw an R-rated film this weekend, per EntTelligence. Overall admissions for Exorcist Believer was 1.9M, which is just under Nun II‘s 2M and less than the 4M apiece which Halloween Kills and Quiet Place II pulled in. Imax B.O. on Exorcist was $2.2M.

Studio reported Sunday figures:

1.) Exorcist: Believer (Uni/Blumhouse) 3,663 theaters Fri $11.84M, Sat $9M Sun $6.3M , 3-day $27.2M/Wk 1

Whether Exorcist: Believer profits remains a question. Stateside outlook is $75M per some analysts.