Two of the most anticipated tentpoles this year missed their projections, but are still rich enough to make exhibition happy in what’s driving an overall estimated $205M weekend. EntTelligence says that a combined 12M people went to see Wicked and Gladiator II, representing 81% of the weekend’s foot traffic.

Everyone relish it: That’s on par with the pre-Thanksgiving frame of 2019 when Frozen 2 drove all titles to $204.9M, and it’s the biggest since 2013 when Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire drove all titles to a $226.5M marketplace. Hands down, biggest pre-Thanksgiving post pandemic.

What we can’t ignore is that the counterprogramming of two respective tentpoles, one aimed at women and one aimed at men, does work. Both Universal and Paramount promoted these titles to the sky with expensive stunts, i.e. Wicked lighting up the Arc de Triomphe in Paris with pink and green and Gladiator II faux colosseums on Sunset Blvd, bus stops and in front of the TCL Chinese Theatre in Hollywood. One source in the know says that Universal spent $70M in domestic/$154M worldwide P&A alone for Wicked, while Paramount’s is around an estimated $50M domestic/$118M worldwide for Gladiator II.

Spilt up, Universal’s Wicked opened to $114M while Paramount’s Gladiator II did $55.5M. And there’s more money pouring into cinemas this week, not just because kids are off, but Disney’s Moana 2 firing up Tuesday night. Worldwide at $164.2M, Wicked is also the biggest opening ever around the world for a Broadway feature adaptation, exceeding Les Miserables ($103M).

This is usually the opportunity in a pre-Covid marketplace where we would scream foul about two titles coming up slightly short, however, give thanks for what we got: The biggest opening for a movie based on a Broadway musical of all-time, exceeding the previous record set by Into the Woods by +268%, and a sequel which is Denzel Washington’s highest opening of all-time, besting American Gangster ($43.5M). Gladiator II is also the best R-rated opening for November, beating 2002’s 8 Mile ($51.2M).

In regards to Wicked, it’s technically the first tentpole to be sold on the back of Ariana Grande and she’s got something that Harry Styles, Lady Gaga, and for that matter, Madonna and Cher can’t brag about: a $100M-plus opening movie. The musical is also hands down Cynthia Erivo’s best opening ever at the box office. PostTrak says that moviegoers went to Wicked because of both stars at 39% versus 29% who said it’s part of a franchise they love.

Paramount was smart to get ahead of Wicked overseas with Gladiator II, not just because of competition, but to earn more for this $250M behemoth. The running global tally on the Ridley Scott directed epic is already $220M.

Originally, remember, Moana 2 and Wicked were playing a game of chicken on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, essentially, set to cannibalize their heavy female audiences. I understand that Disney and Universal executives were encouraged by their partners that one should move, in order to create another Barbenheimer weekend. Wicked was the wiser. Movies that open in the pre-Thanksgiving period traditionally post bigger grosses: Realize that the biggest opening over the 5-day Wednesday through Sunday Thanksgiving stretch is Disney’s 2013 Frozen with $93.5M. Disney didn’t want to move Moana 2 to this weekend as they are beholden to their traditional Thanksgiving eve launch for animated titles. With these platinum exits for Wicked of A Cinemascore and 92% PostTrak positive and 80% definite recommend, the witches movie has enough magic to pull it through the holiday. Had Wicked stuck to its Wednesday opening, and Moana 2 moved to Friday, then the Universal musical would have had a hard time going in the wake of the big Disney sequel.

As far as the lower ticket sales for Wicked and Gladiator II, both have runtimes at 2 1/2 hour-plus. When a studio releases a movie of that length during the holiday spread of November and December, people generally want to plan their trip to the cinema and get the best seats. As far as Wicked coming in under $130M, and hopefully nothing less, that boils down to the industry’s forecasting error on female-driven titles: With presales so massive on Wicked at $30M, it’s not an exact science determining if they’re all showing up on day one. When it comes to Gladiator II, it’s not a fanboy movie: Only 14% men under 25 went, compared to 46% men over 25 and 33% women over 25.

“On behalf of the people who operate movie theatres around the world, congratulations to our studio partners and the creative community for one of the most successful November weekends ever at the box office,” exclaimed National Association of Theatre Owners President & CEO Michael O’Leary about the weekend. “Once again, it’s clear that when healthy competition meets premium experiences, the marketplace thrives, and consumers win. The success of movies like Wicked and Gladiator II, not to mention hearty pre-sales already for Moana 2, demonstrates just how much movie fans of all ages enjoy going to the movies. Nothing tops the cinematic experience, and audiences are loving it. This is a tremendous catalyst for a strong box office going into December and the new year.”

“Glicked will deliver the second highest November weekend for the post-pandemic box office at Regal, only bested by the opening of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in 2022,” added John Curry, SVP of Commercial at Regal.

Exclaimed, Universal Domestic Distribution Head Jim Orr, “Wicked is a spectacular cinematic event as audiences embraced Jon M. Chu’s incredible take on the film that generations of fans around the world have been waiting for. The production of this beloved property is something that must be experienced on the biggest screen as the mesmerizing performances of Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande emotionally catapult audiences to Oz.”

Other stats:

–PostTrak shows that in regards to ratio, not admissions, while Wicked had the higher pre-sales over Gladiator II (63% bought their tickets more than a week in advance for the musical versus 45% for the sword and sandal sequel), it was the Washington movie which saw more walk-up business than the musical, 55% to 37%. That’s simply because female moviegoers pre-plan their trips to the box office.

–Per EntTelligence, Wicked was the bigger with matinees than Gladiator II, 64% to 55% in foot traffic before 5PM showtimes. Both had similar average theater prices for general audiences, Wicked ($14.36) to Gladiator II ($14.32), however, the latter was more expensive in PLF screens, $18.33 to $17.72.

–Wicked‘s top grossing cities (through yesterday) were NYC ($6.3M), LA ($5.8M), Chicago ($2.5M), Philly ($2.2M), San Francisco ($2.2M), Dallas ($2.2M), DC ($2M), Boston ($1.9M), Salt Lake City ($1.8M) and Atlanta ($1.7M).

–AMC Lincoln Square in NYC is Wicked‘s top grossing theater at $268K to date. That’s Gladiator 2‘s to grossing venue too with $130K.

–Gladiator II saw 10% of its gross coming from Canada off 8% of its overall location count. The major markets that overperformed were LA, NYC, San Francisco, DC, Toronto, Miami, San Diego, Montreal and Vancouver while the only major market that under-indexed was Orlando. Top theaters came from NYC, LA, Toronto, Houston, Montreal, San Antonio, San Francisco, Atlanta, DC, Dallas and Seattle.

—Gladiator II‘s social media reach at 336.8M per RelishMix is 32% below action adventure pics across five platforms. Pedro Pascal is the social media leader at 8.5M while Joseph Quinn is near 6M while Paul Mescal is below 1M and Washington is off the grid.

All eyes are on Wicked‘s staying power as Moana 2 moves in. Can two female heavy tentpoles stay alive? The marketplace arguably hasn’t seen a face-off like this ever. Can it crossover on word of mouth? Are fans going a second or third time?

The chart:

via Deadline