Thank God for Snow White next weekend, right?
Who knew with that movie’s controversy we’d be saying that!? However, the industry should be thankful: If Snow White pulls off a $50 million-plus opening, that’s a respectable bump for what is a barren desert of a business right now. Current estimates show that this weekend is in fact the lowest grossing at the domestic box office year-to-date with around $54.7M for all films, lower than Super Bowl Weekend ($55.8M). How is that possible during a spring break with kids off?
We caught Snow White yesterday, and let’s just say it’s a solid Disney movie with great songs from Oscar winners Pasek and Paul and great turns by Rachel Zegler in the title role and Gal Gadot as the Evil Queen. The Marc Webb-directed Snow White is every ounce as great as Beauty and the Beast and all great Disney feature takes of animated classics before it. All the fans that have been flamed by the controversy surrounding the movie were by people who have no intent of seeing the movie in the first place.
In fact, Snow White could have moved up to this weekend. Instead, we have a weekend of what appears to be counterprogramming with five wide entries. And no matter what their exits are here, it’s hard to get people to go to the movies (even if it’s a novel movie) when there isn’t momentum to go. As such, the B Cinemascore, 84% positive, 58% definite recommend Paramount movie Novocaine is leading with an $8.7M opening after $3.9M Friday/previews and $2.89M Saturday. By technicality, and finding a good date on the calendar, it gives both Paramount and Jack Quaid (in arguably his first studio leading-man role) a No. 1 debut.
But, let’s come back to that point: Five new movies are on the marquee. There isn’t a pandemic or a winter storm to blame for the lack of traffic this weekend. Exhibition screams at studios for more product because they need it. But clearly, it’s a matter of quality over quantity. Better to have one big tentpole that a studio spent on then a handful of films they didn’t.
I’m told by Paramount and Focus Features — the latter which has the high-gloss Steven Soderbergh movieBlack Bag, which is performing to tracking with $7.5M — that they committed marketing spend to the $50M production. All I have to say is that everyone knows their own numbers, and knows whether they’re slashing costs so that they’re not throwing good money after bad. But if theatrical is being used just as an advertising vehicle to get to the home window, well, shame on you. These bad habits will kill the business. Straighten up and fly right.
Said one film finance guru in regards to the overall low-grossing weekend, “It’s not a marketplace problem, it’s a studio problem because they’re not making two quadrant movies that audiences want to see.”
Still, it’s not to say that Paramount wasn’t passionate about Novocaine. Production bosses Mike Ireland and Daria Cercek (now at Disney) saw the movie as a low-risk opportunity to diversify their slate with plenty of upside. The project was acquired at budget for $18M before P&A. The movie will breakeven or profit a little after home entertainment next to Black Bag, which stands to lose. Paramount heavily screened the movie, launched the campaign at São Paulo, Brazil’s CCXP with an official trailer, took out a pre-game Super Bowl spot, and had an LA Clippers stunt where Quaid’s look progressively became more bruised and battered throughout the night. The overall target was 18-40. That said social media wattage according to RelishMix was near dead with a 62M reach, -47% the average social media universe reach for an action comedy before opening. This despite Quad counting 2.2M fans and Jacob Balafon at 1.5M followers.
Says RelishMix, “Negative chatter surrounding the film is due to the perceived predictability of the plot with many who express the concern that the plot twist seems too obvious: ‘So the girl was working with the bad guys all along?’. Some fans are pointing out that there was an international film in 2019 with a very similar premise: ‘There’s already a better movie called The Man Who Feels No Pain from 2019. This one looks like the dumber, not funny version.’ Others are actually taking offense to the film as they believe that it is satirizing a serious disease: “I feel a little eh about this because this is a very serious disorder that a not insignificant number of people have, and playing it for laughs is kinda distasteful to me.”
Men bought tickets at 58%, with 26% of the audience between 18 and 24 years old, 28% between 25-34 and 42% 35+ years old. Diversity demos are 46% Caucasian, 29% Latino and Hispanic, 11% Black, 10% Asian and 4% other. PLFs are accounting for 32% of weekend ticket sales. West is the best: top venue is AMC Burbank with around $33K.
Aside from Conclave being a comp ($6.6M opening), realize that years ago adult-skewing spy thrillers such as 2005’s ultimate Oscar winner The Constant Gardner also put up similar high-single-digit openings, that pic doing a 3-day of $8.5M over a Labor Day impacted by Hurricane Katrina (though that Ralph Fiennes–Rachel Weisz movie cost $20M at the time, not $50M). The Constant Gardner finaled at $33.5M; Conclave is also around that threshold. That’s the final hope here for Black Bag. We’ll see. There’s a lot of British spy stuff on streaming including Slow Horses and Black Doves to keep penny-pinching adults at home.
Reports RelishMix, “Convo on Soderbergh’s newest spy film is mixed, showing fatigue for a genre that is seemingly oversaturated. Immediate responses carry frustration with the lack of creativity, ‘Another f#%ing spy movie?? Pass!’ Some point to spy series like Fassbender’s The Agency and revel in the disappointment, ‘The Agency, but worse?,’ ‘So, it’s just True Lies?’ Comments include: ‘Boring plot. Same old story,’ ‘Why does it look all blurry and washed out?,’ and ‘A plot after being recycled 100 times…‘”. If you though the SMU reach on Novocaine was low, Black Bag‘s stood at 47.2M, -44% other drama thrillers.
Black Bag is seeing a B CinemaScore, 75% positive Posttrak, but a solid 51% definite recommend bringing in 56% men, 29% between 25-34 years old and 59% 35+. Diversity demos are 58% Caucasian, 17% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, 7% Asian and 5% other. It’s an East and West coast movie, with AMC Lincoln Square the pic’s richest location with close to $59K so far.
Warners reported their numbers last this morning and says that Mickey 17‘s second weekend is tied for second with Black Bag at $7.5M (-60%). Global is $90.5M on the $118M production. IMAX screens in North America rang up $1.2M or 17% of the weekend with a running cume of $5.2M.
Ketchup Entertainment’s rescue of Warner Bros.’ Looney Tunes: The Day the Earth Blew Up had a $1M Friday for a projected $3.1M opening off a B+ CinemaScore and 89% on PostTrak with a 72% definite recommend. Don’t make the assumption that this is where the shelved Coyote vs. Acme would wind up gross-wise. This is an indie studio releasing a major studio film, hence marketing costs are significantly lower than what a Warner Bros could pump out. This title was originally greenlit for Max, but with the Warner Bros Discovery restructuring was sent to the American Film Market instead to be sold on the market. The Daffy Duck and Porky Pig pic had its world premiere at Annecy International Animation Film Festival last summer. Looney Tunes was 64% dude leaning, 43% of the audience between 25-34 and 26% between 18-24, with 22% parents, 17% kids and 61% general audiences. Diversity demos are 47% Caucasian, 28% Latino and Hispanic, 8% Black, 11% Asian American and 5% other. Any U.S. coins for this movie can be found in the South Central, Midwest and West. AMC Burbank is leading the way with $11K.
Pinnacle Peak Pictures’ The Last Supper owns the only A- CinemaScore for the weekend, but the movie is coming in with only $2.8M. Areas of play for the New Testament story is the South, South Central and Midwest, with the Santikos Casa Blanca in San Antonio TX the highest grossing location for the title so far with $7K.
And A24’s Opus is a dud, unfortunately, falling outside the top 10 with a $1M opening and a C+ CinemaScore, 64% positive and 44% definite recommend on PostTrak after a $433K Friday. I thought this movie, which is like a comedic version of Midsommar in its final girl contending with a cult plot, was a lot of fun with John Malkovich and Ayo Edebiri. But the movie in its Sundance premiere received a muted reception next to Love Lies Bleeding, which played like a rock concert (still, that movie only had a wide opening of $2.5M at 1,362 theaters, and a final of $8.3M domestic).
It’s obvious not even the A24 devotees are rushing into theaters to see this. Why didn’t people go? Says RelishMix, “People are finding the premise to be a bit overdone and compared it to recent films such as The Menu and Glass Onion: ‘I feel I’ve seen this movie before. Like, three times already.’ Every video has a variation on this comment at least three times in the comment section: ‘Why do I feel like I’ve already seen this several times?’. This overwhelming opinion that the concept is over done is what is pushing the reaction to the trailer into the negative.” SMU counted 37M across YouTube views, TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and X before opening.
The film cost under $10M before P&A. I don’t know how the economics on this work, and how home entertainment deems it a break-even or in the black profit-wise; let’s just say that A24 has been here before, and it’s becoming something of a motif (read, Love Lies Bleeding and the Rachel Zegler horror comedy Y2K, which opened to $2.1M and stopped at $4.4M). Let’s also not forget the Nicolas Cage-starring Dream Scenario, which only made $5.7M). C’mon A24, you’re the last stand for hipster moviegoing among the 18-34 set. Let’s not mess it up.
Women mostly came out for Opus at 54%, with 28% of the audience between 18-24 and 50% between 25-34. Diversity demos were 43% Caucasian, 30% Black, 19% Latino, 5% Asian and 3% other. Light business in the East, Midwest and West. AMC Grove has the best grosses so far this weekend with $8K.
Here’s the chart, Sunday figures coming in. Updated figures indicated by bold and inclusion of Saturday and Sunday.
1.) Novocaine (Par) 3,365 theaters, Fri $3.9M, Sat $2.89M Sun $1.9M 3-day $8.7M/Wk 1
2.) Black Bag (Foc) 2,705 theaters, Fri $2.7M, Sat $2.9M Sun $1.79M 3-day $7.5M/Wk 1
2.) Mickey 17 (WB) 3,807 theaters, Fri $2.1M Sat $3.1M Sun $2.1M 3-day $7.5M (-60%), Total $33.2M/Wk 2
4.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 3,250 (-230) theaters, Fri $1.5M (-31%) Sat $2.5M Sun $1.47M 3-day $5.47M (-35%), Total $185.3M/Wk 5
5.) Looney Tunes…(Ketchup) 2,827 Fri $1M, Sat $1.2M Sun $900K 3-day $3.17M/Wk 1
6.) The Last Supper (Pinnacle) 1,575 theaters, Fri $1M, Sat $975K Sun $834K 3-day $2.82M/Wk 1
7.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 2,489 (-596) theaters, Fri $725K Sat $1.2M Sun $850K 3-day $2.77M (-25%), Total $41.3M/Wk 5
8.) Dog Man (Uni) 2,407 (-346) theaters, Fri $650K (-13%) Sat $1.1M Sun $740K 3-day $2.5M (-26%), Total $92.8M/Wk 7
9.) The Monkey (NEON) 2,294 (-661) theaters, Fri $705K Sat $1M Sun $680K 3-day $2.46M (-37%), Total $35.2M/Wk 4
10.) Last Breath (Foc) 2,661 (-429) theaters, Fri $650K (-44%) Sat $1M Sun $620K 3-day $2.3M (-44%), Total $18.5M/Wk 3
Notables
Opus (A24) 1,764 theaters, Fri $433K, Sat $331K Sun $248K 3-day $1M/Wk 1