There’s plenty of surprise out there for Lionsgate’s No. 1 win with threequel Now You See: Now You Don’t at $21M. Global take is $75.5M, with over $54M from offshore. China is contributing $19.2M. We always told you this movie would make magic abroad.

There was clearly more goodwill out there for this IP than say for a revival of an Arnold Schwarzenegger 1980s sci-fi movie, that is clear as Paramount’s Glen Powell starring, Edgar Wright directed Running Man falls behind on its $20M+ tracking to $17M, maybe even less by tomorrow morning with NFL today. But Running Man‘s stumbling goes beyond IP.

This movie arrived on tracking in the $20M range, and wouldn’t budge up further. Incoming Paramount marketing boss Josh Goldstine, I’m told, tried to change up some thematic elements in the trailer from the initial ridiculousness of the whole world-pursuing Powell’s Ben Richards in the first trailer. Advance ticket sales on Tuesday took a downturn once reviews hit (though they’re better than Now You See Me 3, 64% fresh to 59% Rotten). Critics spoke about the social satire in Running Man, and that I’m told, is what turned the non-core fans off.

Some rival distributors refuse to fault Paramount for the release date on Running Man. This mid-November release date is the highly coveted James Bond date. It’s a great place to launch any movie aimed at men. At least there’s the Thanksgiving stretch which can give Running Man a bit of a path, perhaps. In the same breath, some think that Running Man didn’t have the goods to merit this release date on the calendar.

As was seen all along: Now You See Me 3 had a broader audience in its PG-13 rating, and also with women than Running Man (who knew the Four Horsemen were more alluring than Powell?). It’s upsets like these at the box office that has heads scratching across town.

The unfortunate takeaways for Running Man: In the wake of Twisters‘ great $81.2M opening, it was figured that Powell when paired with any IP post Top Gun: Maverick could bring ’em in. Running Man clearly shows that you can’t just align the Austin, TX native with any old property. Fifty-five percent of those who bought tickets to Running Man went because “It looked fun and exiting,” 40% for the sci-fi genre ahead versus 35% for Powell. Taking a deep dive into the numbers, one of the ironies with the Powell effect is that Running Man did play to the middle of the country; sci-fi movies generally play on the coasts. The problem is that largely older men over 25 at 47% showed up.

The other sad takeaway here is that in a theatrical marketplace starving for new franchises, now the industry has to exercise great caution in rebooting old 1980s IP, read Tron Ares‘ dismal performance, 2017’s Blade Runner 2049 (which actually misfired on-screen because the marketing got lost in its own Byzantine mythology; the pic did receive an A- CinemaScore), and now Running Man.

Lastly, there’s the notion from sources this morning that the falling down of Running Man stems from the changeover in Paramount administration from the Brian Robbins-run motion picture studio to the now David Ellison leadership. The project was born under the Robbins regime with a specific marketing execution in mind. When the Ellison admin came in during the summer, the Wright feature was in post and then locked in October. The new Paramount leadership had different opinions about Running Man‘s direction, and history has shown that this movie isn’t the first example of collateral damage when it comes to a change-up in the C-suite.

The $110M production of Running Man had some co-financing from Domain, which has a slate deal with Paramount.

One rival studio marketing source told me last night that when it came to Now You See Me 3‘s triumph here at the box office, it was obvious: the first two Now You See Me movies ranked in the top 10 during their play on Netflix in the last year.

One headline working to the movie’s benefit was the recent Louvre heist: on social media, some believed it was a marketing stunt for Now You See Me 3. Eisenberg addressed this on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon:

Another cool in-theater stunt was that Lionsgate teamed with Proto Hologram on 15 nationwide activations, allowing more than 20,000 moviegoers to take holographic selfies with the cast.

Eisenberg also took to the NYC Hudson Yards and Tompkins Square Park on Saturday, Oct. 25 for two pop-up magic shows as his on-screen magician persona, J. Daniel ‘Danny’ Atlas.

The cast took to social during production to ignite interest. The online campaign engaged franchise fans with clips across TikTok, going on to blend nostalgia and real-world intrigue by leaning into the recent Louvre heist with creator Phoo’s viral recreation (9M+ views). The studio teamed with mega-creator Zach King to giveaway 10,000 movie tickets to the first fans to interact with his post (23M+ views) and pulled off a live stunt for fans featuring Jesse Eisenberg performing a card trick that sparked 23M+ views

Post Covid, the mid November frame (weekend 46) can sometimes be the weekend prior to Thanksgiving, which is not the case this year. Post Covid, what has performed well in this frame has been the second weekend of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($66.4M) in 2022, and Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes ($44.6M opening). The hope of theatrical longevity’s are pinned on next weekend when Universal’s Wicked: For Good is expected to deliver an opening well ahead of last year’s first chapter $112.5M.

Sunday numbers:

Notables:

Die My Love (MUBI) 1,437 (-546) theaters, 3-day $977K (-62%), Total $4.9M.

Note that the second weekend of Black Bear’s Christy wasn’t reported to Comscore or others.

 

via Deadline