It should come as no surprise that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is going to make truckloads of money when it opens on December 20th. But just how many truckloads that is remains to be seen. New estimates err on the conservative side of things with $175 million on the low side and $200 million on the high end. Now that’d be a great weekend get for just about any movie out there, franchise or not; even Frozen 2 managed to over-perform estimates and set records with “only” $127 million on the domestic front. But for not just a Star Wars movie, but the one that brings the multi-decade Skywalker Saga to an end, it feels low even on the high side.
And yet THR‘s box office tracking report sets those markers for the forthcoming ninth installment in the world-famous franchise. Admittedly, those estimates are early figures and conservative ones at that since Disney/Lucasfilm is said to be managing expectations. Competition from Jumanji: The Next Level, which opens on December 13th, could sap some box office strength from Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. But prior installments suggest that final film should at least crest the $200 million mark; The Force Awakens set a high bar with nearly $248 million in its domestic weekend opening, followed by The Last Jedi‘s $220+ million.
Will the final chapter in the overall Skywalker Saga be the lowest performing debut film of the modern trilogy? Maybe so, but I doubt it’ll have any difficulty passing $200 million. Expect that number to change in the weeks ahead as tracking improves, even if the box office narrative that Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is a franchise underdog remains.