Comscore has estimated the 2021 domestic box office at $4.55B, which is +100% from last year’s $2.28 billion and off 60% from 2019’s $11.4 billion. While it would be impossible to think we’d come raging back to 2019 norms, it is arguable that the domestic box office recovery isn’t as robust as many expected.
No 1 Exhibitor Boss Adam Aron of AMC forecasted 2021 ending at $5.2 billion. But in all fairness to his outlook, which was made back in August, that was when Paramount’s Top Gun Maverick was still on the calendar, and rosier projections were anticipated for Disney/Marvel’s Eternals and MGM/UAR’s Daniel Craig 007 swan song No Time to Die.
“The pace of the recovering is occurring at a slower than anticipated pace,” MKM Partners Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst told Deadline, “but the recovery will continue. Part of the problem is there’s just fewer films; the whole middle market is gone, but tentpoles will continue to improve.”
One of those big movies to rally us into 2022 was Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which through its third weekend can scream a US/Canada running total of $609.89M, the 10th-highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office, overtaking Disney/Pixar’s Incredibles 2 and $8M away from beating the 2017 Christmas hit Star Wars: The Last Jedi (which stands in the No 9 domestic B.O. all-time spot at $620.1M).
To date, B.O. numbers firm EntTelligence estimates that 50M people have seen No Way Home, while 9M have watched Sing 2, West Side Story – 2.9M people, Matrix Resurrections – 2.6M, The King’s Man – 1.9M, and American Underdog – 1.5M.
Box office data corp Gower Analytics, off a theatrical slate that include Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Thor: Love and Thunder, Top Gun Maverick, The Batman, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and so much more, predicts 2022 will soar to $9.2 billion.
All movies saw a spike in business on New Year’s Day, with wide releases (titles at 1,000+ theaters) seeing a near 42% climb over Friday. Spider-Man: No Way Home collected $52.7M, -38% from Christmas weekend.
Title/theaters/Fri-Sat-Sun/3-day (% chg)/Total/Weekend no.
1.) Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony) 4,206 (-130) theaters, Fri $15.4M /Sat $23M/ Sun $14.3M/3-day $52.7M (-38%)/ Total: $610M/Wk 3
2.) Sing 2 (Uni/Ill) 3,892 theaters, Fri $6.4M/Sat $7.75M/Sun $5.4M/3-day $19.6M (-12%)/Total: $89.68M/Wk 2
3.) The King’s Man (20th/Dis) 3,180 theaters Fri $1.25M/Sat $1.95M/Sun $1.3M/3-day $4.5M (-24%)/Total $19.5M/Wk 2
4.) American Underdog (LG) 2,813 theaters, Fri $1.35M/Sat $1.6M/Sun $1.08M/3-day: $4.075M (-31%)/Total: $15M/Wk 2
5.) Matrix Resurrections (WB) 3,552 theaters, Fri $1.05M /Sat $1.635M/Sun $1.14M/3-day $3.825M (-64%)/Total: $30.9M/Wk 2
6.) West Side Story (20th/Dis) 2,690 (-130) theaters, Fri $700K/Sat $850K/Sun $550K/3-day $2.1M (-25%)/Total $29.56M/Wk 4
7.) Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) 1,645 (-83) theaters Fri $435K/Sat $620K/Sun $380K/3-day $1.435M (+17%)/Total: $123.4M/ Wk 7
8.) Licorice Pizza (UAR) 786 (+781) theaters, Fri $356K (+5k%)/Sat $541K/Sun $352K/3-day $1.249M (-35%)/Total $6.3M/Wk 6
9.) A Journal for Jordan (Sony) 2,500 theaters, Fri $335K/Sat $525K/Sun $380K/3-day: $1.175M (-47%)/Total: $4.74M/Wk 2
10.) Encanto (Dis) 2,425 (-375) theaters, Fri $340K/Sat $425K/Sun $285K/3-day $1.05M (-42%)/Total $91.3M/Wk 6
11.) Nightmare Alley (Sea) 1,910 (-225)Fri $275K /Sat $425K/Sun $272K/3-day: $972K (-17%)/Total $7.6M/Wk 3