‘The Nun II’ Scares Away Top Spot from ‘A Haunting in Venice’ at the BO!!

It looks like Hercule Poirot doesn’t have a prayer at winning the box office this weekend, with Kenneth Branagh’s A Haunting in Venice losing No. 1 to the second weekend of New Line’s Nun 2, $14.5M to $14.7M. That’s in line with industry estimates, which show a $100K-$300K lead for Nun 2 over the Disney/20th Century Studios film. If these numbers stick into tomorrow, it’s not “a tie,” as others are labeling it. Uhh, Nun 2 wins.

Even though A Haunting in Venice had PLFs and Imax, which propelled 36% of its weekend, Nun 2 had a better Saturday than the Branagh movie, $6.25M to $5.4M. The sequel’s overall hold this weekend is -55%, which is great for a horror pic (they typically drop -60% or worse in weekend 2). The Michael Chaves-directed Conjuring spinoff sequel is also expected to beat Haunting in Venice today, $4M to $3.6M. The first Nun, back in 2018, had a second weekend drop of -66% and take of $18.2M.

These photo finishes tend to happen at the box office when business is dull. This weekend being the second-lowest of 2023 so far, with an estimated $64.7M for all titles. Some of that’s due to the older-skewing, initially lower-grossing nature of a movie like Haunting in Venice (82% over 25 vs. previous two Poirot pics 70% over 25), And yes, the SAG-AFTRA strike, as the Zendaya movie Challengers was originally dated for this weekend, but then had to move. That’s about $10M-$15M of box office money missing right there.

Read: one of the most notorious ties times during a dull September weekend was Sept. 29-Oct. 1, 2017, when there was a three-way tie between Kingsman: The Golden Circle (weekend 2 of $16.93M), It ($16.9M weekend 4), and Tom Cruise’s American Made (opening of $16.8M). Boy, were distribution heads pissed on that Sunday morning. The drama played out into Monday AM, of course. Some Disney insiders believe that Haunting in Venice will have the upper hand tomorrow AM. In their eyes, it’s not a won and done box office battle.

But overall, it’s fair to say that the SAG-AFTRA strike, and actors’ refusal to promote struck work, is taking its toll on the box office. In addition to A Haunting in Venice, Sony’s big ensemble dramedy Dumb Money posted a low per theater of $27K after $217K opening (more on that in a bit).

Nicolas Cage even had a wide release this weekend, the action comedy The Retirement Plan in 1,175 theaters, which did $745K. That pic didn’t have a SAG-AFTRA interim agreement like the actor’s recent A24 TIFF premiere, Dream Scenario, which he allowed him to show up in Toronto for press. The Oscar-winner here wasn’t able to promote his latest movie from Scott Kennedy’s Falling Forward Films.

Technically speaking, for a Cage wide opening north of 1,000 theaters, that’s the Oscar winner’s worst-ever, under the $2.7M start of 1994’s Trapped in Paradise at 1,286 locations. Cage’s critically acclaimed Pig was booked at 552 theaters during its opening weekend in July 2021, and did $970,9K by comparison.

While moviegoers aren’t going to see The Nun 2 for its ensemble, that’s the draw with A Haunting in Venice. And with that pic’s cast, as well as Dumb Money‘s, and even Retirement Plan‘s inability to have actors on talk shows, well, it’s impossible for these types of original movies to break through on the big screen.

This is the reason why Sony is taking a platform approach to Dumb Money, to spread word of mouth. The Craig Gillespie-directed title scheduled to go wide on Sept. 29. No RT audience score yet on Dumb Money.

Retirement Plan was a distribution deal for Falling Forward Films as part of an overall commitment they have with the pic’s production company PMI. Radiant has global rights on the Cage film. Originally the plan was to go 500 theaters, but exhibitors hearing about the heat on the actor’s upcoming Dream Scenario, due out Nov. 10, called up Falling Forward and requested the movie, hence the pic’s wide release at 1,175 theaters. The YouTube trailer only generated 35K views since its release on July 12. There were in-theater promotions for the pic. The Tim Brown-written and directed title follows Ashley (Ashley Greene) and her young daughter Sarah, who get caught up in a criminal enterprise that puts their lives at risk. Ashley turns to estranged father Matt (Cage), currently living the life of a retired beach bum in the Cayman Islands. Ron Perlman and Jackie Earle Haley also star. The movie was made for less than $20M. Five reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are at 80% for the pic, while the RT audience gave it a 65%.