While the supply of movies was able to keep the two-week holiday box office up over 2022’s by 13%, the lack of a mega tentpole carrying over into the New Year — ala Avatar: The Way of Water — is being felt.
The first weekend’s box office of 2024 looks to be down -18% from the same period in 2023, with an estimated $87M. If we thought the fall box office was wonky, well, here comes 2024. Remember, last year at this time had M3GAN providing a cushion. However, Universal/Blumhouse‘s Night Swim is not that hipster, young female YA movie, with a No. 2 debut at $12M (granted at the top of its projection range).
Warner Bros.’ Wonka won its third out of four weekends with $14.4M and a $164.6M running total. Overall, that’s a four-weekend No. 1 streak for Warner Bros. There are still kids off from school, with K-12 at 42% on break Friday and tomorrow seeing 16% on break.
Night Swim landed a “C” CinemaScore, which is middling for a horror film. CinemaScore crowds are always tough on horror movies. But even more cynical are Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak audiences, who drowned this latest title from Blumhouse and Atomic Monster with one star, 45% positive, and a 26% recommend, which translates into a don’t-recommend. Near even split between males and females, at 51% to 49%. Sixty percent of ticket buyers were between 18-34, with 18-24-year-olds the biggest demo at 33%.
Diversity demos were 37% Caucasian, 31% Latino, 19% Black, and 7% Asian. PLF screens are repping close to a third of Night Swim‘s ticket sales — the movie doesn’t have any Imax screens. Best markets for the Bryce McGuire-directed movie are West, South Central, and South, with the AMC Burbank the top grossing venue stateside, with $25K through Saturday.
Chart updated with studio-reported numbers:
1.) Wonka (WB) 3,817 (-234) theaters, Fri $4.3M (-50%) Sat $6.1M Sun $4M 3-day $14.4M (-36%), Total $164.6M/Wk 3
2.) Night Swim (Uni) 3,250 theaters, Fri $5.2M, Sat $4.1M Sun $2.57M 3-day $12M/Wk 1
3.) Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (WB) 3,553 (-234) theaters, Fri $3.1M (-54%) Sat $4.55M Sun $2.96M 3-day $10.6M (-42%) /Total $100M/Wk 3. Aquaman 2 is expected to get north of $400M at the global box office; its running total is now at $334.8M. Flash’s global take was only $270.6M. The sequel’s Imax numbers were as follows: $2.5M global weekend for a running Imax total of $31M. Stateside that total is now $9.5M with $10.2M from China, and $11.3M from other offshore markets.
4.) Migration (Ill/Uni) 3,712 (-127) theaters, Fri $2.98 (-56%) Sat $4.4M Sun $2.86M 3-day $10.25M (-40%), Total $77.8M/ Wk 3
5.) Anyone But You (Sony) 3,055 theaters, Fri $3.25M (-2%) Sat $4M Sun $2.25M 3-day $9.5M (+9%), Total $43.7M/Wk 3
Some projected that this movie would clear $10M this weekend, up 20%. But this is still a great result for the Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell movie, evidence that it’s being discovered, and posting great holds not seen in some time for a rom-com. Duly note, the spike here for Anyone But You is not due to a rise in theater count.
6.) Boys in the Boat (AMZ MGM) 2,687 (+130) theaters, Fri $1.785M (-35%), 3-day $6.02M (-28%), Total $33.8M, Wk 2
7.) The Color Purple (WB) 3,218 (+15) theaters, Fri $1.3M (-69%) Sat $2M Sun $1.43M 3-day $4.765M (-59%),/ Total $54.6M/Wk 2
There seems to be some cold water getting poured on the Oprah Winfrey-Steven Spielberg-Scott Sander feature take of the Broadway musical. Yes, it cost $90M before P&A, and after winning a Christmas Day further boosted by preview group sales ($18.1M), The Color Purple is showing the steepest drop of any holiday release in the top 10 right. Meanwhile, midweek daily grosses since Christmas Day have shown severe double-digit drops.
However, there are two more bumps for the movie: MLK weekend, and Oscar noms. Pic’s overseas rollout begins Jan. 17 and goes to February, not that many are expecting much. But with a movie like this, the hope is that Oscar noms provides some momentum abroad. Right now, the industry domestic outlook for Color Purple is $75M final. Through 14-days, Color Purple looks to be around $4M behind The Greatest Showman. But it’s just not showing the holds of that movie.
8.) Iron Claw (A24) 2,392 (-402) theaters, Fri $1.32M (-22%) Sat $1.86M Sun $1.34M 3-day $4.5M (-2%), Total $24.3M /Wk 3
Excellent hold here for the R-rated drama, which is playing in the flyover states. It is one of a few R-rated dramas to exceed $20M-plus after Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, Air, and Priscilla.
9.) Ferrari (NEON) 2,121 (-265) theaters, Fri $775K Sat $1.08M Sun $650K 3-day $2.5M (-36%) Total $16M/Wk 2
Ferrari director Michael Mann turns 81 next month, and it should be noted that his filmmaking canon as a director has cleared $1 billion — and that’s without any sequels, superhero Marvel movies, or big IP like Barbie. Through 14 days, Ferrari will be pacing 20% behind Ridley Scott’s All the Money in the World, another semi-biopic drama that launched on a Monday Christmas in 2017. What’s key about Mann’s movies is that they have historically had long tails –even in the home. Mann’s Heat is one of the top 15 biggest home entertainment title for Warner Bros., in the league of Harry Potter.
Many involved here on this $96M production (funded between $75M foreign sales and equity investors) wanted to make Mann’s dream project about Ferrari come true, including STX, then NEON, who ponied up $15M-17M to take on U.S. rights for the movie and swerve it from a streaming-only debut in favor of a big screen play.
I understand they were on the hook for a marketing campaign of $15M, but cut it to around $7M. I understand there was a push by Mann to get the movie opened on Dec. 22 so that it had a few extra days of grosses, but NEON wanted to stick to the Christmas Day debut. Still, the movie for NEON will be profitable for them as they prepare to sell the studio. Former Universal Co-Chairman Mark Shmuger, who made Public Enemies and Miami Vice with Mann, once exclaimed about the filmmaker: “I actually marvel at his ability to keep all of his creative options open,” he said. “He’s fearless. He is willing to try everything. That’s a process that does involve wear and tear on everybody.” Shmuger pointed out that Mann movies are not just about the box office: “The key on looking at the profitability of Michael’s movies is that they’ve got a very long tail, well after the theatrical run…Everybody’s seen Heat. Everybody’s seen Last of the Mohicans.… [The films] do fantastically well in video, on all television outlets, overseas.”
10.) Poor Things (Sea) 750 (-50) theaters, Fri $580K (-28%) Sat $830K Sun $590K 3-day $2M (-9%), Total $14.2M/Wk 5
If there’s two naughty arthouse titles in the awards seasons mix, it’s Poor Things and Saltburn. Poor Things has surpassed the gross of Amazon MGM’s Saltburn ($11.3M), the latter title now reigning on Prime Video.
11.) Hunger Games Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 1,428 (-232) theatres, Fri $585K (-47%) Sat $796K Sun $454K 3-day $1.835M (-36%) Total $163.8M/Wk 8