Who knew that hedgehogs were predatory creatures that could spring out of the ground and take down the king of the jungle in full?

Paramount’s $122M production Sonic the Hedgehog 3 is the dominant heading into the Christmas frame with a $62M opening, well ahead of Disney’s $200M prequel Mufasa which is nothing to sing ‘Hakuna Matata’ about with a $35M start. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 gets an A CinemaScore and 5 stars/89% positive on PostTrak to Mufasa‘s A- and 85% positive.

But whoa, ho ho ho what happened yesterday? Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which on Friday looked like it was heading for a franchise best domestic opening, came up way short. Per Paramount, families repped 46% of their crowd through two days which is why business was lighter on Saturday. Parents were at the mall shopping given it’s the last weekend to do so with Christmas falling on a Wednesday. By comparison, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 opened on April 8, 2022 and brought in 59% families. Confidence prevails in business from Christmas Day onward.

Sonic the Hedgehog 2 still owns the $72.1M opening record. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 reps the second-best opening for the franchise. It’s still quite a feat to beat Disney as they have traditionally owned the pre-Christmas frame with Avatar and Star Wars movies, so you gotta give props to Paramount. For the Brian Robbins run motion picture studio, it’s their 5th No. 1 opening of the year after Mean Girls, Bob Marley: One Love, IF and Smile 2. Note, Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s opening is still north of the high $50Ms forecast that was spotted.

For Paramount, it’s the endgame that’s most important on Sonic 3. Even at a 4.7x multiple on the low-end, that gets Sonic 3 to north of $291M which blows away Sonic 2‘s final domestic of $190.8M.

Sonic 3 played strong everywhere, but was best in the East, South Central and West with AMC Burbank the No. 1 theater in the nation for the pic at $61K. Guys were the most at 59% with the 18-34 crowd repping 43%, over 35 attending at 21% and PLF screens and motion seats driving 21% of the weekend.

Mufasa was female leaning at 54% and 18-34 at 39% and 31% over 35. 3D repped 18% of Mufasa‘s business (important for Disney to keep that format alive for when Avatar: Fire & Ash rolls around next Christmas) while PLFs and some Imax overall drove 28% of its business. Imax in the U.S./Canada brought in $4.4M. Mufasa played best in the South, South Central and Mountain regions with AMC Disney Springs the title’s No. 1 venue with $60K so far.

Even though Sonic 3 will bury Mufasa stateside, Mufasa may just have the last roar overseas. Even though Sonic 3 opens abroad on Chrismas Day, Mufasa is $122M ahead (that was its global opening). Final global on Sonic 2 was $405.4M.

It’s a UFC ring of PG-laden movies this Christmas between Mufasa, Sonic the Hedgehog 3, Wicked and Moana 2. Disney’s surfer girl sequel is eating about $13.1M of Mufasa‘s lunch in her fourth weekend, -50%.

Even with a Christmas season that can yield as high as a 7x multiple off a movie’s weekend opening, this is a bad showing for Disney in the pre-Christmas frame, galaxies far, far away from the mega Avatar 2 $134M to near Star Wars $250M openings in this corridor — and it’s a prequel to Jon Favreau’s (is it live action? Gosh, if that’s not a real lion) souped-up animated 2019 Lion King which brought audiences in like gazelles to the tune of a $191.7M opening. Disney, we can’t deny how far off Mufasa is from that opening: down -82%! At $35M level on Mufasa especially with its budget, sorry, Disney, but these are Joker: Folie a Deux numbers…but with very good audience scores.

There is an argument to be made that families will come out Christmas Day for Mufasa, however, per PostTrak’s separate report on Saturday AM, they’re already going at 39% (combined parents and children) to Sonic the Hedgehog 3‘s 34%.

It’s not that families won’t go to Mufasa in the upcoming days, just not in the multitude that Sonic 3 has captured them. Even at a 7x multiple, that gets Mufasa‘s final U.S./Canada number somewhere near $260M. Hopefully overseas, where Lion King has reigned, will get Mufasa past breakeven. A $180M global opening was forecasted for Mufasa. It’s bound to come in lower.

Unfortunately, former Disney CEO Bob Chapek isn’t around, so we can’t blame this on him. Iger spoke about “less is more” in the post-Covid feature slate mission, and quality over quantity, not to mention sequels to only the biggest pieces of IP. However, if you’re going to touch the third holy rail that is Lion King, and expand on the canon, you gotta go back to the OGs. Meaning, Disney, you should have brought in Jeffrey Katzenberg to produce and Elton John to do the songs. C’mon, Disney, you know this having brought back Return of the Jedi scribe Lawrence Kasdan, George Lucas tangentially, and the original Star Wars cast for Force Awakens. There was a syncopation in regard to toe-tapping songs and a finite amount of potent emotional plot points in 1994’s Lion King. As stunning as the animation is in Mufasa (an avalanche! Oh, no, lion cub in the river!) the movie is bogged down in way too much backstory, I didn’t even realize when the Simba storyline bled into young Mufasa. And, sorry, the songs are forgettable. Mufasa makes Moana 2 look like Godfather II. You cannot feel any love tonight in Mufasa.

The utmost ire expressed by Lion King fans online per RelishMix is how the prequel messes around with what’s already been established by the 1994 film.

Reports the social media analytics corp: “Fans are pushing back on the creative changes to the origin of Mufasa and Scar. ‘Mufasa and Scar not being actual brothers completely diminishes the original film, and retroactively makes Scar’s actions in that movie a lot less evil,’ and ‘Mufasa was always part of the royal bloodline Disney. Stop trying to ruin his character and change the canon.’ The more recent animosity towards Disney is prevalent here, ‘Another soulless 3D life-like movie from Disney. I miss those 2D animated movies with colorful visuals and lot of personality.’” Not a lot of heat on social with only 480M followers for Mufasa across TikTok, X, Facebook, YouTube and Instagram — which is 48% less than the social media draw of 2019’s The Lion King which counted 924.7M. Sonic the Hedgehog‘s heat on social was higher than Mufasa at 580M.

There is no such thing as a coincidence as one family elder once told me, and Sean Bailey’s exit as the Disney Motion Pictures Group president back in February just leaves me curious. That said we can’t deny him the massive legacy of hits he’s delivered in the live-action reboots of Lion King, Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, Aladdin — the list goes on. What’s odd is that the minute he departed, there were whispers that Disney would veer from its recipe of re-imaging Disney vault animated classics into live action ones, this despite plans for a fully humanized Moana. That business plan of live-action movies is a smart one, the question is whether the well has run dry; whether some of the vintage plays aren’t prime big enough draws for the big screen, read how Lady & The Tramp and Pinocchio went to Disney+ (smart move on the latter, Disney, live-action Pinocchio movies never do well, just ask Robert Benigni).

Note Disney has posted lower numbers with a legacy prequel/sequel over the Christmas period, that being the 2018 sequel Mary Poppins Returns which did a 3-day of $23.5M off a 5-day of $32.3M (near $50M if you count the week when Christmas fell on the seventh day). However, that was a $130M production to a 1964 Disney classic property. Mufasa is a prequel to one of the highest grossing movies in history, that being Favreau’s version of the Lion King which posted a $191.7M opening (for a $543.6M domestic, massive $1.66 billion global final).

The comp here on Mufasa seems to be Wonka which opened to $39M and did a 5.6x multiple for a $218.4M final. As good as that was for Warner Bros last year, man, this is a Lion King prequel! Lion King is a AAA brand to Wonka‘s AA.

Still, the industry and exhibition has much to be thankful for: They’re not feeling the claw marks of Mufasa coming up short on its $50M projection, for the entire weekend marketplace is delivering a gross of $145.6M, 54% ahead of the same frame a year ago which made $94.4M when Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom led all movies. The 51st weekend of the year is also ahead of 2022’s ($94.7M) by 53% but -48% behind 2021’s when Sony made people go to the movies again after Covid with Spider-Man: No Way Home which propelled all titles to a $282.8M weekend.

What else is going on?

Angels Studios has a Neal McDonough western in Homestead at 1,886 theaters which made $2.9M on Friday for what’s looking like $6M in 5th place. It gets a B CinemaScore and 85% positive on PostTrak. Men bought tickets at 53%, most of the audience here from the middle of the country with Cinemark Majestic 18 in Meridian, ID (when does Idaho ever register at the box office?) the top grossing venue with close to $13K so far. We’re told Angel Studios have been devils in their box office accounting: There were free screenings on Monday (which were somehow paid for), and began full showtimes on Wednesday and Thursday, but didn’t report those grosses, and are rolling them into the weekend gross.

Sony Marvel’s $110M Kraven the Hunter now in the rear-view mirror is seeing a -72% second weekend free-fall with $3.1M. That’s better than Joker Folie a Deux trip off a cliff (-81%), as well as The Marvels (-78%), but worse than Sony Marvel’s Madame Web (-61%). Ten-day cume by Sunday looks to be at $17.4M.

A24’s Brady Corbet 3-hour plus $6M epic The Brutalist delivered a beautiful 3-day of $266,7K at four theaters: AMC Century City, LA’s Vista, New York’s AMC Lincoln Square and Village East. The epic’s theater average at $66,7K which is the third-best opening theater average of 2024 after NEON’s Anora ($91,7K) and Searchlight’s Kinds of Kindness ($75,4K). A24 reports that 30 showtimes were sold out over the weekend for the 70MM and Imax previews. This movie is an indie feat to behold, an homage to Michael Cimino with a dash of Paul Thomas Anderson. People ask me, “How do I make it through? I can’t possibly sit through a movie of that length.” It’s easy: Espresso up and bring some protein bars. Act one is 100 minutes, 15-minute pee intermission, 100-minute Act II. What do you have to look forward to in Act II? That’s when Felicity Jones enters the picture.

via Deadline