It’s bound to be one of the lowest overall grossing weekends of 2025 with around $70.2M for all movies, and there’s not even a snowstorm to blame.

That’s how this part of the calendar typically swings at the box office. A year ago at this time, all titles counted $54.5M per Box Office Mojo, and that was the second worst weekend of 2024. For all the blah-blah from distribution heads that moviegoing can be a 52 weekend business, there are just some dead zones on the calendar. Today, it’s a run-up to the Super Bowl with Commanders vs. Eagles and Bills vs. Chiefs, so don’t expect any guys to go to the movies. Hopefully this weekend doesn’t come in lower than what we are seeing here.

Still, where others see pitfalls, Lionsgate sees opportunity, so good on them once again for programming a wide release where there wasn’t any with the Mel Gibson-directed, Mark Wahlberg starring Flight Risk which will notch the studio their second No. 1 opening of the year with $12M. It’s also the studio’s second after Den of Thieves 2: Pantera since Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’ run at No. 1 in November-early December 2023. Once again in 2025, Lionsgate has opened a movie to the top of tracking (Lionsgate, your rivals saw this at $12M, OK?).

Despite the No. 1 opening here for Wahlberg, and two-time Oscar winner Gibson (the filmmaker’s third No. 1 opening after Passion of the Christ and Apocalypto), the whole movie feels like a non-event, despite the trailer hook of “Mayday, Mayday, the pilot is a hitman” and that’s because we’ve seen these plane-in-peril movies before. In fact, Michelle Dockery, who stars in Flight Risk, starred in one of these types of pics back in their heyday, and that was 2014’s Liam Neeson Non-Stop which debuted to $28.8M ($92.1M domestic final).

Jodie Foster’s 2005 thriller Flightplan was another one with a $24.6M start ($89.7M final). Lionsgate opened Plane two Januarys ago to $10.2M. This is just where this plane genre lives, and audiences have seen it before. Flight Risk was originally set for October 2024.

There’s also something to be said about Wahlberg’s box office drawing power of late. Not counting the Tom Holland starring Sony Playstation franchise movie Uncharted ($44M), it’s been a while since the two-time Oscar-nominated actor has opened a movie to north of $20M on his own, à la 2016’s Deepwater Horizon ($20.2M) and 2014’s Lone Survivor ($37.8M). Flight Risk‘s opening here isn’t that far from his 2018 STX action movie Mile 22 which debuted to $13.7M, and it’s above his recent solo turns Arthur the King ($7.6M) and Father Stu ($5.4M). All of this said, Wahlberg was one of the primary reasons why moviegoers bought tickets to this at 32% in PostTrak exits. Anyone wondering why Lionsgate would release two dude action movies within two weeks of each other, know that Wahlberg pulls in more women. Flight Risk counts 46% women/54% men to Den of Thieves 2: Pantera‘s 37% women/63% men.

One marketing source knocked Lionsgate on this movie that they only released two one-sheets and one trailer. However, the bean-counting, frugal studio isn’t going to overspend (P&A mid $20Ms) when they know the goods are limited. Forget about the fact that critics loathe Flight Risk calling it “dumb” or as San Francisco Chronicle‘s Bob Strauss whines, “The equivalent of a suspenseful Spirit Airlines commercial…”, audiences aren’t really thrilled with this bumpy airflight through the mountains movie giving it a C CinemaScore and 63% on Rotten Tomatoes audience meter.

RelishMix says that “negative leaning chatter on Flight Risk has viewers expressing the immense doubt they have in the project: “This movie is a tax writeoff.” This trend continues as more fans predict a lack of success due to the business of the film, “Everyone knows January is where they send movies out to die and be forgotten.” Social media universe analytics at 79 million across TikTok, X, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube are 40% behind other action thrillers, per RelishMix. Guy Ritchie’s action movie The Gentleman by comparison had a reach of 104 million on social before its opening in January 2020, the pic opening to $10.6M (again another comp here for Flight Risk, that Ritchie movie ending with a $36.4M stateside result).

What’s unfortunate is that we typically expect more from Gibson as a director in terms of delivering unique epic features, not been-there, done-that thrillers, and his first directorial in nine years here is no Hacksaw Ridge. Maybe Lionsgate, which roams in the faith-based sector, can talk him into making another Biblical or New Testament feature. That red state sector would totally show up for Gibson (PostTrak exits said 16% went to see Flight Risk for Gibson as a filmmaker). Still, despite the low start here for Flight Risk, what’s clear is that these older-dude leaning (this one 45% over 25), cookie-cutter action movies, particularly with stars, still need theatrical to propel them through the home entertainment window. And that’s what Lionsgate counts on with these titles.

Lionsgate ran spots during sports programming, including a college football bowl game takeover on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day with on-air, in-program and experiential elements, as well as spots in pre- and post-season NFL, NBA and more. Of note, on social/digital there was a “Marks Go Free x Fandango” activation where Marks around the country redeemed 3,400 opening night tickets in just four hours.

PLF screens are delivering 27% of the weekend for Flight Risk. The movie is playing the best in the South Central and West with the Harkins Estrella Falls 16 in Goodyear, Ariz. the top grossing cinema in the nation with $13K so far.

Chart is updating.

Audiences like the Steven Soderbergh ghost story just a little bit more than Flight Risk at C+. PostTrak audiences fell asleep at 58% with a 33% definite recommend. At this level, among Soderbergh’s wide openings (north of 1,000 theaters), it’s his lowest opening after Unsane at $3.8M. The movie was reportedly shot for $2M over 11 days. It’s not clear what NEON paid for the movie, but they gave it a push with Julia Fox realtor billboards. That said, for a small studio with an even lower overhead than Lionsgate, these economics are where they dwell — read the Sydney Sweeney horror movie Immaculate, which opened to $5.3M and legged out to $15.6M, considered a very good result for them (C CinemaScore). Presence‘s opening is higher than NEON’s Cuckoo ($3M) and MUBI’s multi Oscar-nominated genre movie The Substance ($3.2M opening, final domestic $16.8M); however, it’s not certain that Presence can pull off a 5x-plus multiple like The Substance and Immaculate. Mostly men at 56%. Forty-one percent of moviegoers were 25-34 and 32% were over 35. Diversity demos were 53% Caucasian, 24% Hispanic/Latino, 11% Black, 9% Asian & 4% NatAm/Other. Best play for the Soderbergh movie is East, South Central and West with the AMC Burbank 30 the No. 1 domestic venue with $31K through Friday. Soderbergh has another movie coming out in Q1: Focus Features’ spy thriller Black Bag starring Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender on March 14.

Continuing:

Nosferatu (Focus) 1,973 (-572) theaters, Fri $590K, Sat $920K, Sun $540K, 3-day $2.05M (-51%), Total $93.2M/Wk 5
Robert Eggers vampire movie is $3.6M away from becoming Focus’ highest grossing movie ever at the domestic box office, surpassing 2019’s Downton Abbey at $96.2M.

Brave the Dark (ANG) 2,230 theaters, Fri $930K, Sat $899K, Sun $737K, 3-day $2.56M/Wk 1
The Jared Harris drama from the faith-based studio gets an A CinemaScore. PostTrak is great at 86% and 66% definite recommend, but the faithful aren’t going. Turnout is 47% men, 53% women, 74% of the audience 35+ years old with the largest quad being 55+ at 37%. Diversity demos are 66% White, 15% Latino/Hispanic, 6% Black, 7% Asian & 6% NatAm/Other. Highest-grossing venue for the pic in the country? The Penn Cinema in Lititz, Penn. with $25K so far.

 

via Deadline