Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes won Black Friday and Saturday at the box office, respectively with $11.4M and $11.2M, soaring above a Disney animated movie (Wish) which are typically the champs of Thanksgiving weekend, and big streamer Apple’s $200M war epic, Napoleon, for a No. 1 win over the holiday stretch with a 3-day $28.8M and 5-day of $42M.
The Francis Lawrence-directed prequel should hit $100M by Monday. Quite often, one hears the tired line from distributors when they come in under expectations with an opening weekend, “We look forward to a great run during the holidays.” However, that was no line, but a bonafide truth for Songbirds & Snakes. Holiday moviegoers woke up to the great movie that it is. The industry domestic endgame for this movie is around $150M.
Disney Animation’s Wish came in third on Friday and Saturday (eeks) with respectively $8M and $7M, behind Apple Original Production’s Sony-distributed Napoleon, which earned an estimated $8.4M on Friday and $7.5M yesterday. In the end, it was Napoleon who reaped the spoils of the Thanksgiving box office in second over Disney’s Wish, with a 5-day of $32.5M to $31.7M. Global on Napoleon is $78.8M, besting the $44M worldwide start of Apple’s Killers of the Flower Moon. Napoleon‘s 3-day is $20.4M, while Wish is $19.5M. More on Wish in a bit…
Overall ticket sales for the Wednesday through Sunday frame of Thanksgiving came in at an estimated $173.9M, which is the best post-pandemic for the holiday, besting 2022’s $134M and 2021’s $142M. However, we’re still far off from pre-pandemic Thanksgiving moviegoing, 2019 having racked up $263.4M, powered by Frozen 2, and 2018 hitting a record $315.6M.
Napoleon, with a running time of 2 hours and 38 minutes, made more in its first five days at the domestic box office than Apple’s 3 1/2 hour Killers of the Flower Moon, which did $28.2M — admittedly, that’s because of the holiday. Those PLF and Imax screens are driving 34% of ticket sales so far, with the AMC Lincoln Square Theatre in NY the highest-grossing cinema in the country, with a running total through Saturday of $105K. Imax alone did $5.3M from 399 North American auditoriums, repping 16% of Napoleon‘s domestic weekend.
The 3-day opening here for Napoleon, despite its lofty cost, is in the vicinity of Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings which opened to $24.1M (a B- CinemaScore, just like Napoleon) and legged out due to the Christmas holiday to $65M. Exodus also rallied abroad, seeing 76% of its $268M global total from offshore ticket sales. That said, Napoleon overperformed and bested its OK audiences exits. That momentum provides the movie with more hope in the long run over the holiday season than Scott’s Moses movie, which was mired in faith-based controversy at the time of its release.
Sony’s distribution deal, I understand, is around 8% of the box office, with Apple backstopping marketing costs. Sony recoups its marketing costs before monies go to Apple. If box office falls short of marketing costs, than Apple covers that gap. However, that’s not expected, given that ticket sales are solid abroad, which was always the play here for the movie.
Audiences are not entirely over the moon about the movie, with 72% positive on PostTrak, a 46% recommend, and guys still outpacing women, 65% to 35%. Best grades for the movie come from the 18-24 set (80%, but only 17% of the crowd) and men under 25 (77%, 15% of ticketholders). Close to half of the audience was between 18-34, with 25-34 being the biggest demo at close to a third. Diversity mix was 57% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 9% Black, and 12% Asian/other.
And as far as the withering of Wish.…it’s no surprise that CEO Bob Iger said days before the movie’s release on an earnings call that Disney “lost some focus” when it came to the quality of their pics this past year. They’re used to winning on both fronts, with critics and audiences, and the $175M-$200M production of Wish was pummeled by critics, but redeemed by moms and girls, with an overall A- CinemaScore.
When we start hearing things such as how the lackluster summer Disney/Pixar pic Elemental ($154.4M domestic, $496M WW) was one of the biggest movies on Disney+ (26.4M global views in first five days of its release), it’s clear the Mouse House is in competition with itself. On the upside, theatrical boosts the downstream potential. But simultaneously, if the movie looks same old-same old, then families aren’t rushing out to it. They’ll wait for it on Disney+.
Even though Disney executed the best D-Day marketing blitzkrieg during an actors strike with Wish — (i.e. promo partners like McDonalds, Neiman Marcus, Verizon, Cheerios), notched the most-viewed Disney trailer on TikTok in first 24 hours, and had synergies on FX, Freeform, Disney+ and ABC, with the latter’s Dancing With the Stars “Disney’s 100 Night” kicking off a Wish sweepstakes — nobody is rushing to see the movie, and that’s two-fold: They’ve seen this plug-and-play princess movie before, with the silly sidekicks (a talking goat and puffy star), and they can wait for this.
Also, it’s not clear in the trailers what this movie is about…wishing on stars? Critics observed and smelled this clearly, with The Boston Globe‘s Odie Henderson griping, “This fairy tale feels more like a corporate product than a magical event; it’s a limp dissertation on Disney’s motto that, “When you wish upon a star, your dreams come true,” and AP’s Lindsey Bahr pointing out, “Wish is harmless holiday programming for the family. But it’s strange to watch a movie about celebrating the individual ‘star’ in everyone that feels like it was made by mandate, not a dream.” Any argued similarities between the $30M opening of Trolls Band Together and Wish can be dashed: The former Uni/DreamWorks Animation movie cost $95M to the latter, which cost double. End point.
Says one razor-sharp feature distribution analyst about Wish, “Since the pandemic, not a single original IP animated film has been able to open above $30M. That suggests that studios have to work extra hard to create the urgency that comes with familiar IP. Otherwise, they’ll just wait to watch it at home. That speaks to more systemic problems with the genre.”
They also add about Wish, “You know you’re in trouble when the narrative about a film is that it’s more about a celebration of the company’s birthday than a compelling piece of content.”
Amazon/MGM’s Saltburn saw $622K on Friday, +106% over Thursday, and another $675K on Saturday (+9%) for a 3-day of $1.7M, 5-day of $2.7M, and running total of $3M. Good numbers, we hear, in the big cities and Cinephile locations, with Alamo New Mission in San Francisco the top-grossing venue in the nation with $21K through Friday.
Chart updated with Sunday estimates:
1.) Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (LG) 3,776 theaters Fri $11.4M (+88%) Sat $11.1M Sun $6.27M 3-day $28.8M (-35%) 5-day $41.1M/Total $98.3M /Wk 2
2.) Napoleon (App/Sony) 3,500 heaters, Fri $8.4M (+94% from Thurs), Sat $7.5M Sun $4.5M 3-day $20.4M, 5-day $32.5M/Wk 1
3.) Wish (Dis) 3,900 theaters, Fri $8M (+111% from Thurs) Sat $7M Sun $4.5M 3 day $19.5M, 5-day $31.7M/Wk 1
4.) Trolls Band Together (Uni/DWA) 3,893 (+23) theaters Fri $7.1M (+170%) Sat $6.5M Sun $3.9M 3-day $17.5M (-42%), 5-day $25.3M Total $64.4M/Wk
5.) Thanksgiving (Sony) 3,204 theaters, Fri $2.78M (+36%) Sat $2.78M Sun $1.58M 3-day $7.1M (-31%) 5-day $11.1M,Total $24.1M/Wk 2
6.) The Marvels (Dis) 4,030 theaters Fri $2.4M (+95%) Sat $2.5M Sun $1.5M 3-day $6.4M (-37%) 5-day $9.2M Total $76.8M/Wk 3
7.) The Holdovers (Foc) 1601 (+123) theaters Fri $1M (+96%) Sat $1M Sun $610K 3-day $2.75M (+2%), 5-day $3.75M Total $12.9M/Wk 5
8.) Saltburn (AMZ/MGM) 1,566 (+1559) Fri $622K (+106% from Thurs) Sat $675K Sun $438K 3-day $1.735M (+426%) 5-day $2.72M, Total $3M/Wk 2
9.) Next Goal Wins (Sea) 2,240 theaters Fri $665K (+40%) Sat $625K Sun $410K 3-day $1.7M (-32%) 5-day $2.57M/Total $5.7M Wk 2
10.) Taylor Swift: Eras Tour (AMC) 938 (-635) theaters, Fri $900K (+245%) Sat $833K Sun $597K 3-day $2.33M (-16%)/5-day $2.52M Total $178.3M/ Wk 7
11.) Five Nights at Freddy’s (Uni) 1,754 (-1075) theaters, Fri $650K (+150% from Thurs) Sat $710K Sun $390K 3-day $1.75M (-51%), 5-day $2.5M Total $136.2M/Wk 5