Blame the fact that it doesn’t appeal to girls, blame Disney+ for stealing family moviegoers, blame the lack of an ensemble Toy Story cast, heck, blame everything as Disney/Pixar’s Lightyear didn’t do its magic by internal studio or industry standards this weekend with $51M, close to a third below its lowest $70M pre-release projection.
This is an opening more in the vicinity of Pixar’s original fare (i.e. Coco $51M, Ratatouille $47M), so it could still leg out to $200M+. However, given how this IP was built on the back of the Toy Story brand, it’s clear many were expecting significantly more. Lightyear overall was down in its global start, $85.6M versus the top-end $135M estimate we reported. In sum, there wasn’t any urgency for mass moviegoers to see Lightyear.
Universal/Amblin is calling Jurassic World Dominion at $58.66M, -60%, and a $68M 4-day.
While Lightyear had good exits, if you stack them up against Toy Story 4, it’s just not as vibrant. Lightyear had a 61% definite recommend to the latter’s 75%. Toy Story 4‘s positivity score was higher 89% to Lightyear‘s 85%, and that 2019 sequel had an even split between boys and girls. Also, while an A- CinemaScore is, of course, great for any movie, an A is even more platinum, and makes all the difference in regards to legs, especially when it comes to animation. The slight difference is vital.
How else did Jurassic World Dominion whip Lightyear? I hear that Dominion had more large format availability and more evening activity than Lightyear, which helped the box office for the Colin Trevorrow film. Box office stat firm EntTelligence reports that Dominion had 51% of the premium format seats (PFS) to Lightyear‘s 43%. The presales in weekend 2 for the dinosaurs indicated this would happen. Four hundred Imax auditoriums generated 8% of Dominion‘s gross, with other premium large format (PLF) screens driving 11%. All in, all premium formats repped close to a third of Dominion‘s second weekend take, or $17M. Imax and PLF drove 24% of the gross for Lightyear. Next weekend, Disney gets all the Imax screens for the Angus MacLane-directed Pixar title.
Overall, EntTelligence showed that Dominion pulled in 36% of the weekend audience in the last two days, to Lightyear‘s 33%. Dominion overindexed in the South, South Central, and Midwest. The dinosaurs beat Lightyear in Canada over the first two days, $2.875M to $1.76M, and popped in Hispanic and Latino markets like San Antonio and more. This despite the fact that Lightyear beat Dominion in LA and family hub Salt Lake City.
RelishMix reports Lightyear‘s social media universe in the TikTok era was lower than the massive footprint that Toy Story 4 had, 396.1M across all social formats to 757.7M. Among recent comps like Sonic the Hedgehog 2, Lightyear ran 12% under that pic’s social media reach before opening. Disney had a social media champ in MCU star Chris Evans, who promoted to his near 34M fans. Keke Palmer was well-activated at 21.8M fans, along with Uzo Aduba at 3.6M, plus Taika Waititi at 5.4M.
Paramount/Skydance’s Top Gun: Maverick is coming in at $44M, down an amazing 15%, for a $466.1M total by EOD today, which, as we reported last night, is the third-best fourth weekend ever for a movie, after American Sniper ($89.1M) and Avatar ($50.1M).
We’re hearing that Top Gun 2 on Father’s Day is leading presales. Over the weekend, Top Gun 2 became producer Jerry Bruckheimer’s top-grossing title at the domestic box office, clicking past 2006’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest, which did $423M. Worldwide, Dead Man’s Chest is still the producer’s top around the world with $1.07 billion, followed by 2011’s Pirates of the Caribbean: Stranger Tides ($1.05B) and 2007’s Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($961M). It will take a bit for Top Gun 2, currently at $885M WW, to fly past that trio.
In tenth place is Focus Features’ Brian and Charles. In 279 locations in 100 markets, it did $198K over 3-days, for a $711 per theater, with an expected $221K. The numbers speak for themselves. Only one theater cracked $1K, and that was the Alamo Drafthouse South Lamar in Austin, TX. Focus didn’t overspend here, I understand, digitally targeting the audience and taking global rights at a low cost.
1.) Jurassic World Dominion (Uni) 4,697 (+21) theaters, Fri $15.8M, Sat $21.98M, Sun $20.88M, 3-day $58.66M (-60%)/4-day $68M/Total $259.1M/Wk 2
2.) Lightyear (Dis) 4,255 theaters, Fri $20.7M, Sat $16.3M, Sun $14M, 3-day $51M, 4-day est $55M+/Wk 1
3.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 4,262 (-489) theaters, Fri $11M, Sat $15.6M, Sun $17.3M, 3-day $44M (-15%), 4-day est $48M, Total $470.1M/Wk 4
4.) Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (Dis) 2,465 (-880) theaters, Fri $1.1M, Sat $1.57M, Sun $1.52M, 3-day $4.2M (-19%), 4-day $4.4M, Total $405.2M/Wk 7
5.) Bob’s Burgers (20th/Dis) 1,350 (-1,255) theaters, Fri $349K, Sat $441K, Sun $310K, 3-day $1.1M (-51%), 4-day $1.3M, Total $30M/Wk 4
6.) Everything, Everywhere All at Once (A24) 679 (-755) theaters, Fri $260K, Sat $359K, Sun $341K, 3-day $960K (-26%), 4-day $1.2M, Total $65.1M/Wk 13
7.) The Bad Guys (Uni) 1,477 (-939) theaters, Fri $280K, Sat $370K, Sun $330K, 3-day $980K (-61%), 4-day $1.15M, Total $94.4M /Wk 9
8.) Downton Abbey – A New Era (Foc) 1,179 (-832) theaters, Fri $260K, Sat $300K, Sun $270K, 3-day $830K (-53%), 4-day $970K, Total: $42.3M/Wk 5
9.) Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Par) 439 (-628) theaters $54K, Sat $94K Sun $80K, 3-day $228K (-70%), 4-day est $280K, Total $190.5M/Wk 11
10.) Brian and Charles (Foc) 279 theaters, Fri $74K,Sat $73K, Sun $51K, 3-day $198K, 4-day $221K, Wk 1