The ultimate financial fate of Warner Bros‘ One Battle After Another with a U.S./Canada opening of $22.4M, and global of $48.5M will be determined down the road off its $130M-$140M production cost.
Typically, we’re judge, jury and executioner on weekend one, but there’s such an exuberant positivity out there for the film, and the plan is for Warners to keep Paul Thomas Anderson‘s best opening ever/Leonardo DiCaprio‘s 11th $20M+ opener in theaters for as long as possible, heading into awards season. No word on a window to PVOD or streaming.
No, this isn’t another bloated high-priced auteur affair ala Joker: Folie a Deux, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey or Amsterdam, falling short at the box office with lackluster audience scores. The film has more going for it, evident in its A CinemaScore and 74% definite recommend. Oh, and males 18-25 who showed up at 32% gave One Battle After Another a big A+. PostTrak is 4 1/2 out of 5 stars. Beat that, anyone.
Breakeven for the movie I’m told is in the low $200M global gross threshold. Why was it so expensive? Car chases and gun battles. At a time when the call is to shoot more movies in California, this one did exactly that, with expenditures of $101.6M which earned the production an $8.4M tax credit (it’s always for below the line here, not above the line). Not a lot of rival studios have the cajones nowadays to shoot in California, and this movie provided jobs. Amen.
Even though AMC’s Taylor Swift: Showgirl movie was a last minute add for next weekend, expected to steal some $30M+ in its one frame play, One Battle After Another will hold all the Imax screens for another weekend, and 70MM, film, and VistaVision venues (i.e. LA’s Vista Theatre, Union Square in NYC) for weeks to come. Anecdotally, I watched the movie in Imax 70MM at the Regal Irvine Spectrum yesterday afternoon, and it was mind-blowing. Get thee to a 70MM Imax auditorium ASAP. The VistaVision format fits like a glove to the Imax experience; swear to God — the visuals rival Christopher Nolan’s Dark Knight. Imax and PLFs drove an awesome 51% of the box office. Imax domestic hubs made $4.6M (or 21% of the weekend) from 412 screens, including nine locations offering the title in Imax’s 1570 film format.
The outlook for weekend 2 on One Battle After is to post a significantly better hold than the 3 1/2 hour Killers of the Flower Moon which dropped -60% in weekend last fall.
Now, you might ask something about the movie’s release date. Why, late September? Originally, One Battle After Another was scheduled to go in early August ala 2019’s Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Both movies have a summery hipster sensibility. Why not steal a move out of The Revenant‘s distribution playbook? Go limited over Christmas into New Year’s, tucked under Avatar: Fire and Ash (Revenant played limited when Star Wars Force Awakens was hogging a lot of gross) and then go wide in the dry period of early January? Basically, it boils down to the availability of Imax and PLFs. Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to have a four-weekend play in Imax, maybe more, hence it was better for Warners to go earlier than later on One Battle After Another.
The movie did play on the coasts and the big cities, as expected. Top DMA markets were 1. Los Angeles, 2. New York, 3. San Francisco, 4. Chicago, 5. Washington DC 6. Toronto, 7. Dallas, 8. Boston, 9. Philadelphia, and 10. Atlanta.
The top 10 locations for the Anderson directed, written and produced movie was 1. AMC Lincoln Square New York (now north of $177K), 2. Regal Union Square New York, 3. AMC Universal Citywalk Los Angeles, 4. Vista Los Angeles, 5. AMC Burbank, 6. AMC Grove Los Angeles, 7. AMC Century City Los Angeles, 8. AMC Metreon San Francisco, 9. Music Box Theatre Chicago, and 10. Coolidge Corner Theatre Boston.
Anderson directs the audience at the first screening at The Vista in LA:
Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Gabbys Dollhouse was a toddler play earning $13.7M from a $32M net production cost. The greater halo is in the merchandise (I understand the girl brand actually has sold a lifetime 4 million dollhouses, not 3 million). In terms of brand partnerships there were LEGO sets inspired by the film, a team-up with the Girl Scouts for a PSA and a limited-edition patch; Gabby-themed Home Chef meal boxes, Ella+Mila custom nail polish, Color Me Mine Gabby-themed pottery pieces, and a Menchie’s inspired cake theme flavor. Also, LA and Charlotte, NC Camp stores were transformed into immersive Gabby’s Dollhouse experiences. The trailer earned 105M views before opening.
Said Universal Domestic Distribution Chief Jim Orr this morning, “Not surprisingly, Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was incredibly well received at the domestic box office this weekend with audience reaction scores that point to a long, successful run going forward. It’s devoted fans loved seeing their beloved characters in a new adventure on the big screen.”
Lionsgate’s horror movie Strangers: Chapter 2 is coming in at $5.9M, -50% off from the opening of last year’s Strangers: Chapter 1 and unfortunately the lowest start of the franchise behind 2008’s Strangers ($21M), Strangers: Chapter 1 ($11.8M), and the 2018 Aviron distributed Strangers: Prey at Night ($10.8M). Hearing the sequel was a negative pick-up at $5M, with marketing cost in the low teens. Foreign licensing covered the bulk of acquisition costs.
Total weekend box office for all movies came in at an estimated $78.3M, -16% off from a year ago when DreamWorks Animation/Uni led with Wild Robot‘s $35.7M debut. This weekend was +3% over last weekend’s $75.7M.
1. One Battle After Another (WB) 3,634 Theaters, Fri $8.8M, Sat $7.7M Sun $5.8M 3-day $22.4M/Wk 1
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse (Uni) 3,500 theaters, Fri $4.3M Sat $5.5M Sun $3.8M 3-day $13.7M/Wk 1
3. Demon Slayer…Infinity Castle (Sony) 2,984(-358) theaters, Fri $1.8M (-61%) Sat $3M Sun $2.2M 3-day $7.1M (-61%), Total $118.1M/Wk 3
4. The Conjuring: Last Rites (NL) 3,083 (-330) theaters, Fri $1.95M (-47%) Sat $3M Sun $1.8M 3-day $6.86M (-44%),Total $161.4M/Wk 4
5. Strangers: Chapter 2 (LG) 2,690 theaters, Fri $2.4M, Sat $2.1M Sun $1.39M -day $5.9M/Wk 1
6. Him (Uni) 3,168 (0) theaters, Fri $1.1M (-82%), Sat $1.5M Sun $930K 3-day $3.65M (-72%), Total $20.7M/Wk 2
7. The Long Walk (LG) 2,297 (-548) theaters, Fri $980K Sat $1.4M Sun $965K 3-day $3.4M (-45%), Total $28.8M/Wk 3
8. Downton Abbey: Grand Finale (Focus) 2,829 (-882) theaters, Fri $990K (-50%) Sat $1.3M Sun $990K 3-day $3.3M(-48%), Total $39M/Wk
9. Spider-Man (’02 & ’04, reissue) (Fathom) 1484 theaters, Fri $737K Sat $1.1M Sun $400K, 3-day $2.25M/Wk 1
10.They Call Him OG (Prath) 800 theaters, Fri $570K,Sat $540K Sun $290K 3-day $1.4M, Total $5M/Wk 1
11. A Big Bold Beautiful Journey (Sony) 3,330 theaters (0), Fri $410K Sat $515K Sun $325K, 3-day $1.25M (-62%), Total $5.9M/Wk 2
12. Dead of Winter (Vert) 605 theaters, Fri $595K, Sat $255K Sun $204K 3-day $1.05M/Wk 1
13. Eleanor the Great (SPC) 892 theaters, Fri $430K, Sat $265K Sun $240K 3-day $935K/Wk 1